2026 Market Outlook and Risks: Investream’s Takeaways From Top Resources

Navigating the market can be difficult in any year, but coming into 2026, many are feeling uncertain about how to plan ahead. It can be a lot to juggle to make sense of the news and separate noise from true insights to make sound investment decisions in the year ahead. Every year, we try to take some of the burden away from you and present our key takeaways from reputable sources. This year, we decided to do something a little different and share a summary of our January 2026 webinar, along with a comparison of what Marcus & Millichap shared one week later. Keep reading to learn about what the experts are saying will matter most in 2026.

What We Focused On

During our 2026 market outlook webinar, we shared a list of some of our favorite resources and provided macro/micro outlooks, discussed what’s likely on the horizon for fiscal policy, made some recession projections, and talked about how all of these factors and more can impact commercial real estate.

Where We Get Our Information

Making sense of a shifting landscape is made even harder if you’re not sure which sources are reputable. This is a non-exhaustive list of our favorite sources, but these are some of the resources we used to create our 2026 market outlook webinar:

• ITR Economics
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Marcus and Millichap
• CBRE
• BizNow
• Costar
• “Big 4” and RSM
• World Economic Forum
• Yahoo Finance
• CCIM
• The Real Deal
• Other active veterans in the industry

We find ourselves coming back again and again to Marcus and Millichap. Their insights are comprehensive, well-researched, and clear. We also really enjoy ITR Economics. Their organization has talked a lot about what they anticipate as the upcoming Great Depression of the 2030s and has some really fascinating videos on the topic.

Our aim is to take in a mix of local, national, and global sources that cover the economy, commercial real estate, and market trends. We don’t want to get distracted by everything thrown at us. We start by discussing internally and then sharing what we find with our investors.

For the bigger picture, we appreciate sources like the Big 4, RSM, and the World Economic Forum for industry insights and the macro view. Here’s what we shared in our macro view.

The Macro Outlook for 2026

GDP Growth Bottoms Out Before it Recovers

One of the things RSM believes we are likely to see next year is a “soft labor market” coinciding with a “surging economy.” GDP growth in Q3 2025 was up 4.3%, which can largely be attributed to spending habits from higher-income households and investments in AI. After the AI craze slows down (14% of investment growth is in this area), we expect to see GDP decrease, as also reported by Morningstar, projecting that GDP growth will bottom out in 2026 and 2027, not seeing a rebound until later in 2027 and 2028.

A Weaker Job Market Ahead

Job growth is likely to be weaker in 2026. As reported by the Economic Policy Institute, in December 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, up from 4.1% last December. The total gain in employment was only 585,000 in 2025 compared with 2.0 million in 2024. Federal employment also decreased by 277,000 since January, a loss of 9.2% of all federal jobs. The job market is not anticipated to rebound in 2026.

Higher Inflation is Coming

Inflation was a big topic in 2025, and ITR Economics believes that higher inflation is on the way. We have yet to see a significant impact of tariffs on inflation, but Morningstar’s outlook is that the impact of tariffs will be seen in inflation this year.

Recession and Depression Projections

ITR Economics has frequently discussed its prediction that we will experience a Great Depression around the 2030s. While it will be different than what the Great Depression of the 1930s was like through additional safety nets, it will still be important to prepare for such a scenario. This can include living below your means and diversifying your investments.

There are some investment areas ITR Economics particularly likes, including medical applications, physical AI, cybersecurity, defense, and electrification. If your investment strategy includes support for key markets, you can improve your long-term outlook.

Moody’s AI models have also calculated high probability recession risks over the past few years, peaking most recently at 48% in August 2025. When uncertainty is high, it can negatively impact decision-making, but as mentioned in Marcus & Millichap’s October 2025 CRE Investment Outlook, in these moments, go back to “Real Estate Investment 101” by picking the right submarket and the right property profile that will perform well in slow growth periods.

Are Rate Cuts on the Horizon?

While we may not have seen as many rate cuts as we ultimately expected in 2025, it is likely that short-term rate cuts will be coming in 2026, with rates expected to settle near 3.4% by the end of 2028, per the Congressional Budget Office. Even with these cuts, mortgage borrowing is likely to remain more expensive through 2028, with the 10-year treasury rates expected to increase from 4.1% at the end of 2025 to 4.3% at the end of 2028.

What’s In The News?

The news cycle seems to move faster every day, and by the time you read this, something we may have addressed in the webinar may feel long out-of-date. However, there are a few items in the news to track and give your attention to, because they are more likely to impact investments, including:

• Tariffs
• Executive orders, including the recent one limiting the ability of large firms to purchase single-family homes
• Any “America First” initiatives that may impact manufacturing, the labor market, imports/exports
• Interest rate changes
• Subsidized housing and similar incentives
• ICE and its impact on labor and other markets

For more on our 2026 market outlook, as well as some takeaways from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report, check out our full webinar.

The Micro: What’s Happening in Texas and Oklahoma?

Investream has been focused on Houston since its founding, and more recently, we have expanded to include projects in Dallas and Oklahoma City.

PwC has listed Dallas and Houston in the top 5 U.S. Markets to Watch again in 2026, with Dallas at #1 and Houston at #5. Dallas has seen 100 new corporate headquarters between 2018 and 2024 and is home to the 2nd largest financial market in the country. Houston’s Gross Metropolitan Product is currently at $697 billion and is projected to double by 2042. Both areas are showing strong growth, so even in slower periods, they are likely to fare better than other parts of the country.

Even while we are anticipating a challenging year, with unemployment likely to reach 4.5% and inflation expected to persist, Oklahoma is expected to see slight increases in business investment and a 1.4% increase in real consumer spending in 2026. Oklahoma City was listed as the #1 on the U.S. News and World Report Best Big Cities to Live In. One major industry that may impact the Oklahoma City economy is energy. If oil prices and energy employment continue to underperform, this may negatively impact state growth.

Investream’s Approach to 2026

With these markets and others, it’s important to stay focused. Our full list of main takeaways can be found at the end of our webinar, but here are a few that we shared:

• Build-to-Rent (BTR) is the new reality: We are now a renters’ nation. People are looking for the privacy and lifestyle they get from buying a single-family home with the flexibility and affordability of renting.
• Senior housing is growing, and it’s about more than your grandparents’ senior living apartments. More active senior living is on the rise, with yards, community centers, and luxury amenities.
• A recession is imminent, but you should plan for the worst and hope for the best.
• Medical buildings will remain strong. Everyone needs to go to the doctor.

At Investream, we focus on submarkets and niche asset classes as part of a diversified investment strategy. Diversification and asset allocation can help greatly in times of flux.

What Marcus & Millichap Talked About

As we mentioned in our summary above and in our webinar on January 15, we greatly appreciate Marcus & Millichap for their in-depth analysis and well-researched takes. They presented their 2026 CRE outlook on January 22, and here are some of the main takeaways:

The Marcus & Millichap 2026 CRE Outlook is very close to what Investream shared for the year

In short, there wasn’t anything wholly surprising about Marcus & Millichap’s 2026 outlook. Since we rely on their research, as well as several other sources, we expected to see alignment.

Mark Zandi opened the webcast by saying he believes it will be a reasonably good year, expecting about 2.5-3% of GDP growth, which places the growth a bit higher than 2025’s 2-2.5% growth. Much of this growth should come from stimulus programs from the OBBB, which includes tax cuts to businesses, larger defense and security spending, and larger individual refund checks. He also addressed the contribution AI is making to the economy. In our webinar, we talked about how growth can appear larger when it’s driven by a few main factors, such as AI and high-income earners, and this webinar addressed both of these as well. They talked about the K-shaped economy, which is highly dependent on spending done by the top 20%.

One of the biggest things Zandi said he was concerned with, echoed by a few other panelists as well, was the job market. He believes we will see a small improvement in jobs in 2026, but only enough to keep unemployment rates fairly consistent.

Each year, Zandi presents a “What Could Go Wrong” chart. We shared the previous 2025 risks chart in our January 2026 presentation, which included high risks of bond sell-offs, global trade wars, and intensifying bond markets. The graph also marked risks on the rise, including major cyberattacks and global supply chain disruptions. In 2026, we see some of these risks remaining, as well as some new and growing concerns around the K-shaped economy, institutional erosion, the potential loss of independence at the Fed, and the sell-off of AI stocks. Many of these issues were things we discussed in our outlook as well.

Other Takeaways from the Webinar

Despite a lot of talk around tariffs, they haven’t yet impacted inflation. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t see the effects this year. It depends on whether tariffs will increase or continue to be negotiated downwards.

Commercial real estate (CRE) was seeing some surges, but now, there are slowdowns. There has been a 72% drop in multifamily stars and a 52% decrease in units under construction. Affordability gaps can also be a barrier, reaching all-time highs this past year. As we mentioned in our webinar, there needs to be relief somewhere. Sharon Wilson Geno talked about the restrictions around large institutional investors acquiring single-family homes, as well as the possibility that individuals may be able to use their 401(k) for a down payment in the future. One great takeaway from Geno was about the relationship between the job market and housing: “Homes are where jobs go to sleep at night.” It’s important to consider any trends around jobs in tandem with what will happen with housing.

Similarly, we should look to the office market, which is still experiencing a “tale of two offices,” as Marcus & Millichap has addressed before. We covered some of this in our webinar as well, how suburban offices that are newer and smaller have lower vacancy rates than older, urban offices with larger footprints. Where they are really seeing growth is with data centers, which is expected only to increase. While Investream is not focused on data centers, it is an area to watch for in the years to come.

Want More? Watch Our Webinar Series

We’ve just given you a ton of information, but if you’re still looking for more, you can watch our 2026 outlooks & risks video in full, or any of our other webinars. Don’t want to miss when something’s on the horizon? Sign up to get our emails, and we’ll invite you to the next one!